NoVo · The Week Ahead

BOTTOM LINE: Equities enter the week powered by a dovish macro tailwind following a shock payrolls contraction, with SPY, QQQ, and IWM showing broad alignment that favors dip-buying above structural support until Wednesday's CPI report tests the rally. THE WEEK AHEAD The benchmark complex reflects strong broad-based momentum across multiple timeframes. SPY ($773.38) and QQQ ($723.28) lead upper-boundary trend expansion, while IWM ($302.06) confirms small-cap participation above its key round-number breakout floor. Market maker mechanics across all three indexes operate in positive net-gamma regimes, meaning institutional dealer hedging acts as a structural shock absorber that dampens volatility and encourages mean-reverting stability. For options traders, this environment favors selling premium into overextended moves and buying localized pullbacks rather than chasing breakout extensions, as low volatility compresses option premiums. The defining condition for the week is whether price can hold above its structural support bases; a sustained hold keeps buyers in control, whereas a break below would flip market-maker flow from dampening to amplifying, unleashing sell-side momentum. CATALYSTS * **Monday, August 10:** NY Fed Consumer Inflation Expectations (11:00 AM ET) provides an early pulse on consumer price sentiment. Corporate earnings include Rocket Lab (RKLB) and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS). * **Tuesday, August 11:** NFIB Small Business Optimism (6:00 AM ET) offers insight into small-cap labor demand following July's weak employment data. Earnings feature Super Micro Computer (SMCI), CoreWeave (CRWV), and CAVA Group (CAVA). * **Wednesday, August 12:** July Consumer Price Index (CPI / Core CPI, 8:30 AM ET) serves as the macro anchor of the week. A cooler print validates rate-cut expectations, while a sticky inflation reading threatens the dovish narrative. Earnings include Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Nebius Group (NBIS). * **Thursday, August 13:** July Producer Price Index (PPI, 8:30 AM ET) and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) offer wholesale inflation and labor-market confirmation, alongside commentary from Fed Presidents Barkin and Hammack. Applied Materials (AMAT) reports earnings. * **Friday, August 14:** July Advance Retail Sales (8:30 AM ET) and Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10:00 AM ET) gauge consumer spending health. SCENARIOS The expected weekly moves price in approximately ±$16.22 for SPY, ±$23.24 for QQQ, and ±$7.77 for IWM. * **Base Case (Bullish Drift):** SPY maintains trade above support at $771.97, maintaining a steady push toward upper resistance at $775.00 and $778.00. QQQ holds its positive-gamma floor to target $728.00, while IWM defends $300.00 to probe $305.00. * **Bull Case (Catalyst Expansion):** A benign CPI report on Wednesday accelerates rate-cut bets. SPY clears resistance at $775.00 to target $780.00+, QQQ expands through $730.00, and IWM pushes past $306.00 on aggressive small-cap short-covering. * **Bear Case (Dovish Narrative Collapse):** Hot CPI data or a breach of SPY $771.97 invalidates the bullish structure, driving SPY down toward support at $765.00 and $760.00. QQQ loses its positive-gamma buffer to test $710.00, while IWM breaks under $299.00 toward $295.00. DEALER POSITIONING MAP · SPY / QQQ / IWM Vol environment: VIX 14.9 — 8th percentile of the past year (very low vol). SPY $773.38 Net GEX: +$576M · positive — dealers dampen moves (grind / mean-revert) Gamma Flip: $771.97 Gravity (magnet): $772.80 Call Wall: $775.00 Put Wall: $765.00 Expected move (this week): ±$16.23 (±2.1%) Put/Call skew: +0.9 vol pts · roughly balanced MM skew · 0DTE +0.9 / next +1.0 vol pts · front term structure flat ATM IV: 7.4% QQQ $723.28 Net GEX: +$484M · positive — dealers dampen moves (grind / mean-revert) Gamma Flip: $717.79 Gravity (magnet): $724.52 Call Wall: $730.00 Put Wall: $710.00 Expected move (this week): ±$23.25 (±3.2%) Put/Call skew: +2.3 vol pts · puts bid — downside hedging demand MM skew · 0DTE +2.3 / next +2.1 vol pts · front term structure flat ATM IV: 12.5% IWM $302.06 Net GEX: +$130M · positive — dealers dampen moves (grind / mean-revert) Gamma Flip: $300.46 Gravity (magnet): $301.23 Call Wall: $302.50 Put Wall: $299.00 Expected move (this week): ±$7.84 (±2.6%) Put/Call skew: +1.0 vol pts · roughly balanced MM skew · 0DTE +1.0 / next +1.6 vol pts · 0DTE complacency vs the next expiry ATM IV: 9.6% Gamma Flip = where dealer hedging flips from dampening to amplifying moves. Call/Put Walls = the largest call/put gamma strikes (pin / resistance above, support below). Expected move = the ±1σ range priced into at-the-money options. Public options data. FLOW DYNAMICS Charm — while dealers hold long gamma, each session's options decay pulls their delta toward the walls: a recurring drift into the daily close (the pin) through the week. Vanna — vol is low and dealers are long gamma; a VIX spike would flip them toward selling into weakness (amplifying) — the risk that changes the map. Second-order dealer flow context.