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Expected Move Calculator

Enter a price, its implied volatility, and days to expiration — get the ±1σ range the options market is pricing (where price stays ~2 of 3 sessions), plus the 2σ range. The number that frames every 0DTE trade.

0DTE = 1 day. Use the option's at-the-money IV (or the index vol: VIX for SPY, VXN for QQQ, RVX for IWM).

Expected move (±1σ, ~68%)
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1σ range (price likely stays inside ~2 of 3 sessions)
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2σ range (~95%)
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Implied ATM straddle
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For education only — a probability range, not a guarantee or a recommendation. Options involve significant risk of loss.

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See the expected move drawn live — on the chart

NoVo overlays today's expected-move band right on your SPY / QQQ / IWM chart and updates it through the session, next to the dealer levels that define where price pins and breaks. Manual one-click entry; automated exits.

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About

What the expected move tells you

The expected move is the range the options market is pricing for a stock or index over a given period — the ±1 standard-deviation (1σ) band, where price stays inside roughly two out of every three sessions. It is the single most useful number for framing a 0DTE trade: it tells you how much room the day realistically has.

The formula

Expected move (1σ, in dollars) = Price × (IV / 100) × √(Days / 365), where IV is the annualized implied volatility. For a 0DTE trade, Days = 1. The 2σ range (~95%) is simply double the 1σ move. Traders also back it out of the at-the-money straddle (call + put premium × ~0.85), which bakes in the market's real-time vol.

How to use it on 0DTE

If SPY's expected move is ±$4 and it's already run +$4 by mid-morning, the easy part of the day may be over — the tape is at the edge of its priced range. A break outside the expected move on real volume is often the cleaner trade than chasing inside a pinned range. NoVo draws the live expected-move band directly on the chart and updates it through the session, alongside the dealer levels that define where price actually pins. See the deep-dive in The Journal or the live SPY / QQQ / IWM reads.

FAQ

Common questions

What is the expected move in options?
The expected move is the ±1-standard-deviation price range the options market is pricing over a period, derived from implied volatility. Price stays inside it about 68% of the time (1σ) and about 95% of the time at 2σ. It's the market's own estimate of how far a stock or index is likely to travel.
How do you calculate the expected move for 0DTE?
For a 0DTE (same-day) option, expected move = price × (implied volatility / 100) × √(1 / 365). For example, SPY at $745 with 16% ATM IV has a 1-day expected move of about ±$6.2. You can also estimate it from the at-the-money straddle price × 0.85.
What implied volatility should I use?
Use the at-the-money implied volatility of the specific expiration you're trading. As a quick proxy for the index ETFs you can use the matching vol index: VIX for SPY, VXN for QQQ, and RVX for IWM. NoVo shows all three live on the market-data page.
Is the expected move guaranteed?
No. It's a probability range, not a limit — roughly a 1-in-3 chance price closes outside the 1σ band and about 1-in-20 outside 2σ. Big news or a gamma squeeze can push far beyond it. Treat it as context, not a barrier.
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Market data on this page is delayed and provided for general information only — it is not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. VIX/VXN/RVX are ~15-minute delayed (CBOE); index values use E-mini futures. Options trading involves significant risk of loss. © 2026 NoVo Options Trading.