NoVo Analyst · Pre-Market Primer

BOTTOM LINE: Easing wholesale inflation and resilient labor data support a green pre-market gap, though heavy dealer gamma across index ETFs frames today for controlled absorption rather than runaway expansion. THE SETUP Index futures hold structural gains into the open following an unchanged July Producer Price Index reading (0.0% MoM vs 0.2% expected) and initial jobless claims printing at a steady 209,000. These figures reinforce a cooling disinflation trajectory after yesterday’s CPI print, solidifying expectations for a Federal Reserve policy hold. While S&P futures expanded through overnight highs into the 08:30 AM data release before consolidating above yesterday's high, geopolitical friction and elevated crude oil near $88 a barrel continue to act as a drag on global risk sentiment. Expect an expansive open testing overhead supply, but structural dealer mechanics favor range bound mean-reversion over an unhedged breakout. DEALER POSITIONING Market maker posture across SPY, QQQ, and IWM shows broad-based positive net-gamma alignment across the complex. In this positive gamma regime, dealers are mechanically obligated to buy local dips and sell rallies, dampening intraday volatility and turning overhead resistance into a sticky magnet. Alignment across all three index ETFs remains tightly synchronized, though tech exposure in QQQ carries a slightly higher volatility footprint compared to small-cap IWM, where dealers sit closer to the gamma-flip pivot. Across the options chain, the overall book reflects a modest net-short delta lean alongside steady daily theta decay, creating a continuous cost drag on long contract holders if spot price grinds sideways. LEVELS TO WATCH For SPY ($774.62), buyers must defend immediate support at the pre-market low of $772.54 and yesterday's high at $774.87 to maintain this morning's bullish structure. Clearing overhead resistance at $774.69 (pre-market high) opens the door toward upper call walls. On the downside, a sustained break below $772.11 (after-hours low) and yesterday's low at $771.29 would weaken the structural bid. For QQQ ($725.06) and IWM ($303.71), holding above their respective positive-gamma floors preserves broad-market stability; a failure to hold those levels would shift dealer posture toward amplifying sell-side flows. DEALER POSITIONING MAP · SPY / QQQ / IWM Vol environment: VIX 14.4 — 3th percentile of the past year (very low vol). SPY $774.62 Net GEX: +$7.9B · positive — dealers dampen moves (grind / mean-revert) Gamma Flip: $766.79 Gravity (magnet): $776.41 Call Wall: $780.00 Put Wall: $770.00 Expected move: ±$9.33 (±1.2%) today · ±$20.85 (±2.7%) this week Put/Call skew: +1.4 vol pts · roughly balanced MM skew · 0DTE +1.4 / next +0.7 vol pts · 0DTE fear building vs the next expiry ATM IV: 19.1% QQQ $725.12 Net GEX: +$1.3B · positive — dealers dampen moves (grind / mean-revert) Gamma Flip: $721.74 Gravity (magnet): $724.85 Call Wall: $730.00 Put Wall: $715.00 Expected move: ±$7.68 (±1.1%) today · ±$21.42 (±3.0%) this week Put/Call skew: +3.1 vol pts · puts bid — downside hedging demand MM skew · 0DTE +3.1 / next +3.0 vol pts · front term structure flat ATM IV: 16.8% IWM $303.71 Net GEX: +$272M · positive — dealers dampen moves (grind / mean-revert) Gamma Flip: $302.79 Gravity (magnet): $302.42 Call Wall: $304.00 Put Wall: $300.00 Expected move: ±$2.81 (±0.9%) today · ±$7.70 (±2.5%) this week Put/Call skew: +1.3 vol pts · roughly balanced MM skew · 0DTE +1.3 / next +1.9 vol pts · 0DTE complacency vs the next expiry ATM IV: 14.7% Gamma Flip = where dealer hedging flips from dampening to amplifying moves. Call/Put Walls = the largest call/put gamma strikes (pin / resistance above, support below). Expected move = the ±1σ range priced into at-the-money options. Public options data. FLOW DYNAMICS Charm — as today's options decay, dealer delta drifts toward the walls: a mild pull into the close (the pin). Vanna — vol is low and dealers are long gamma; a VIX spike would flip them toward selling into weakness (amplifying) — the risk that changes the map. Second-order dealer flow context.