NoVo · The Week Ahead

BOTTOM LINE: Equities enter the week with structural support intact across SPY, QQQ, and IWM, but high-volume earnings catalysts and Fed minutes will test whether dealers can maintain their volatility-dampening posture. THE WEEK AHEAD The equity complex displays clear structural divergence heading into the third week of August. SPY ($776.05) sits near the upper end of its five-day range after closing up +0.4% over the past five sessions, supported by a constructive multi-day macro structure despite recent Asian Globex pressure on S&P futures. QQQ ($730.83) maintains positive positioning, but tech valuation multiples remain sensitive to interest rate expectations, leaving the Nasdaq-100 vulnerable to macro shocks. Small-caps lead relative resilience, with IWM ($304.83) benefiting from rate-cut expectations after soft July retail sales showed consumer spending contracting by 0.6%. The central question for the week is whether broad-market buyers can defend key structural support floors or if sticky wholesale inflation and retail earnings will trigger a broader volatility expansion. CATALYSTS Macro and retail catalysts dominate the weekly calendar. On Tuesday, August 18, housing sector exposure begins with Home Depot earnings, alongside reports from Baidu, Keysight, and Toll Brothers. Wednesday, August 19, brings dual catalysts: retail health checks from Target, Lowe's, TJX, and Analog Devices before the open, followed by the release of the July 28–29 FOMC Meeting Minutes at 14:00 ET, which will provide context on how central bankers viewed inflation stability versus economic slowing. Thursday, August 20, delivers Initial Jobless Claims at 08:30 ET alongside earnings from retail giant Walmart, Alibaba, Deere, Ross Stores, and NetEase. Friday, August 21, concludes the week with S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs at 09:45 ET, testing whether real economic expansion remains intact. SCENARIOS For SPY, structural boundaries sit at support levels of 775.00, then 774.11, with primary overhead resistance at 778.89, then 780.00. * **Base Case (Range Consolidation):** SPY trades between 775.00 and 778.89 as dealers keep price action anchored. QQQ holds above its key options-based support floor while IWM consolidates near current levels, keeping realized volatility suppressed ahead of central bank events. * **Bull Case (Structural Breakout):** Reclaiming 778.89 signals renewed buying demand, pushing SPY toward its overhead call concentration at 780.00. Confirmation requires QQQ breaking higher out of its consolidation range alongside IWM maintaining its positive baseline. * **Bear Case (Downside Expansion):** A sustained loss of 775.00 on SPY opens a drop toward 774.11 and lower liquidity pools. This path activates if QQQ or IWM breach their respective options support floors, converting dealer posture into an amplifying state. DEALER POSITIONING MAP · SPY / QQQ / IWM Vol environment: VIX 14.2 — 2th percentile of the past year (very low vol). SPY $776.05 Net GEX: +$191M · positive — dealers dampen moves (grind / mean-revert) Gamma Flip: $775.70 Gravity (magnet): $776.69 Call Wall: $780.00 Put Wall: $775.00 Expected move (this week): ±$15.58 (±2.0%) Put/Call skew: +0.8 vol pts · roughly balanced MM skew · 0DTE +0.8 / next +0.9 vol pts · front term structure flat ATM IV: 5.7% QQQ $730.83 Net GEX: +$230M · positive — dealers dampen moves (grind / mean-revert) Gamma Flip: $729.83 Gravity (magnet): $733.99 Call Wall: $740.00 Put Wall: $730.00 Expected move (this week): ±$21.33 (±2.9%) Put/Call skew: +1.2 vol pts · roughly balanced MM skew · 0DTE +1.2 / next +1.6 vol pts · 0DTE complacency vs the next expiry ATM IV: 9.0% IWM $304.83 Net GEX: +$215M · positive — dealers dampen moves (grind / mean-revert) Gamma Flip: $303.25 Gravity (magnet): $305.71 Call Wall: $306.00 Put Wall: $301.00 Expected move (this week): ±$7.60 (±2.5%) Put/Call skew: +1.0 vol pts · roughly balanced MM skew · 0DTE +1.0 / next +0.9 vol pts · front term structure flat ATM IV: 8.2% Gamma Flip = where dealer hedging flips from dampening to amplifying moves. Call/Put Walls = the largest call/put gamma strikes (pin / resistance above, support below). Expected move = the ±1σ range priced into at-the-money options. Public options data. FLOW DYNAMICS Charm — while dealers hold long gamma, each session's options decay pulls their delta toward the walls: a recurring drift into the daily close (the pin) through the week. Vanna — vol is low and dealers are long gamma; a VIX spike would flip them toward selling into weakness (amplifying) — the risk that changes the map. Second-order dealer flow context.