NoVo Analyst · Pre-Market Primer

BOTTOM LINE: Equity futures are opening near unchanged after fading overnight gains, leaving market makers in an amplifying posture for SPY while QQQ and IWM retain structural cushions. THE SETUP Index futures showed early upward momentum during London hours, pushing S&P futures toward 7830.75 before rolling over into the U.S. pre-market. S&P futures dropped back through their overnight VWAP (7813.25) to test session support near 7801.25, reflecting a cautious backdrop after equities closed near record highs last week. Sentiment is balancing the fallout from an unexpected 0.6% drop in July U.S. retail sales against escalating geopolitical risks as the 60-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire MOU reaches its deadline. With major retail earnings on deck this week alongside Wednesday's FOMC meeting minutes, expect choppy, low-conviction price action until regular session volume establishes true directional flow. DEALER POSITIONING Options market maker positioning exhibits a critical divergence across the three main benchmark ETFs. In SPY ($776.42), net dealer GEX sits in negative territory rounded to -$0.4B, putting dealers in an amplifying posture where their hedging mechanics sell into weakness and buy into strength, expanding intraday moves. Conversely, QQQ ($732.89) and IWM ($304.02) remain anchored in positive net-gamma regimes where market makers act as volatility absorbers, dampening price swings through mean-reverting flows. Across the broader index book, options traders maintain a light net-long delta orientation with balanced put/call skew, creating a market structure that can drift lower if SPY's negative gamma triggers dealer selling. LEVELS TO WATCH For SPY, reclaiming its intraday gamma-flip level at 777.68 is the key condition required to return market makers to a stabilizing positive-gamma posture. Holding below 777.68 keeps the short-gamma acceleration active, leaving price vulnerable to downside tests of pre-market lows at 776.04, the 775.94 gravity magnet, and the 775.00 put wall floor; losing 775.00 opens broader liquidity pools down to last week's low at 775.43. On the upside, clearing pre-market resistance at 778.23 and Friday's high at 778.80 would signal renewed buying interest, opening a path toward the main overhead supply target at the 780.00 call wall. DEALER POSITIONING MAP · SPY / QQQ / IWM Vol environment: VIX 15.0 — 10th percentile of the past year (very low vol). SPY $776.43 Net GEX: -$361M · negative — dealers amplify moves (moves extend) Gamma Flip: $777.68 Gravity (magnet): $775.94 Call Wall: $780.00 Put Wall: $775.00 Expected move: ±$8.70 (±1.1%) today · ±$19.45 (±2.5%) this week Put/Call skew: +1.5 vol pts · puts bid — downside hedging demand MM skew · 0DTE +1.5 / next +0.9 vol pts · 0DTE fear building vs the next expiry ATM IV: 17.8% QQQ $732.89 Net GEX: +$655M · positive — dealers dampen moves (grind / mean-revert) Gamma Flip: $731.87 Gravity (magnet): $730.96 Call Wall: $740.00 Put Wall: $725.00 Expected move: ±$3.96 (±0.5%) today · ±$21.39 (±2.9%) this week Put/Call skew: +1.2 vol pts · roughly balanced MM skew · 0DTE +1.2 / next +1.6 vol pts · 0DTE complacency vs the next expiry ATM IV: 8.6% IWM $304.02 Net GEX: +$93M · positive — dealers dampen moves (grind / mean-revert) Gamma Flip: $303.57 Gravity (magnet): $304.90 Call Wall: $306.00 Put Wall: $302.00 Expected move: ±$1.66 (±0.5%) today · ±$7.58 (±2.5%) this week Put/Call skew: +1.0 vol pts · roughly balanced MM skew · 0DTE +1.0 / next +0.9 vol pts · front term structure flat ATM IV: 8.6% Gamma Flip = where dealer hedging flips from dampening to amplifying moves. Call/Put Walls = the largest call/put gamma strikes (pin / resistance above, support below). Expected move = the ±1σ range priced into at-the-money options. Public options data. FLOW DYNAMICS Charm — in a negative-gamma regime, decay doesn't pin; moves can extend into the close. Vanna — with dealers short gamma, a drop in vol would ease the amplification and let the tape settle. Second-order dealer flow context.