NoVo Analyst · Pre-Market Primer

BOTTOM LINE: Index futures are opening under broad pressure, with geopolitical tensions driving an energy shock and yield spike that sets a defensive tone across SPY, QQQ, and IWM. THE SETUP Equities are extending downward momentum into the Tuesday open following the expiration of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire MOU. Crude oil pushing past $90 a barrel and the 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.73% are compounding the pressure from last session's weak retail sales data. S&P futures established an overnight high of 7739.25 before bleeding lower into pre-market trading, keeping the immediate structural trend anchored to the downside. Expect aggressive early tests of intraday liquidity, with volatility expanding if buyers fail to step in at opening range support. DEALER POSITIONING Market maker positioning reveals a structural tilt across all three major index benchmarks. SPY, QQQ, and IWM are trading in a negative-gamma posture, putting options market makers in a position where their mechanical hedging requires selling into spot price drops and buying into bounces, which amplifies intraday price swings. While QQQ faces heavier tech-led pressure from rising real yields, IWM shows a parallel short-gamma posture that keeps small-cap rallies constrained. Options market flows carry a short-delta tilt paired with downside put skew, reflecting active hedging demand that puts a continuous decay cost on unconfirmed long exposure. LEVELS TO WATCH For SPY, holding support at the pre-market low of 767.80 and the key downside level at 768.00 is essential to prevent a secondary liquidation sweep down toward prior-day support at 772.51 and 772.17. To neutralize immediate seller control, buyers must push spot price back above pre-market resistance at 769.88 and 772.79, opening a path toward overhead resistance at 776.00 and 776.77. For QQQ ($720.41) and IWM ($303.02), watch whether spot price can reclaim their respective short-gamma flip levels; remaining below these thresholds keeps dealer hedging in an amplifying posture and aligns all three benchmarks for wider downside expansion. DEALER POSITIONING MAP · SPY / QQQ / IWM Vol environment: VIX 15.8 — 21th percentile of the past year (low vol). SPY $769.10 Net GEX: -$3.0B · negative — dealers amplify moves (moves extend) Gamma Flip: $778.77 Gravity (magnet): $769.28 Call Wall: $776.00 Put Wall: $768.00 Expected move: ±$8.14 (±1.1%) today · ±$18.20 (±2.4%) this week Put/Call skew: +2.6 vol pts · puts bid — downside hedging demand MM skew · 0DTE +2.6 / next +1.8 vol pts · 0DTE fear building vs the next expiry ATM IV: 16.8% QQQ $720.34 Net GEX: -$387M · negative — dealers amplify moves (moves extend) Gamma Flip: $720.95 Gravity (magnet): $729.87 Call Wall: $735.00 Put Wall: $720.00 Expected move: ±$9.33 (±1.3%) today · ±$21.83 (±3.0%) this week Put/Call skew: +2.7 vol pts · puts bid — downside hedging demand MM skew · 0DTE +2.7 / next +2.6 vol pts · front term structure flat ATM IV: 20.6% IWM $303.02 Net GEX: -$55M · negative — dealers amplify moves (moves extend) Gamma Flip: $303.54 Gravity (magnet): $303.44 Call Wall: $306.00 Put Wall: $302.00 Expected move: ±$2.60 (±0.9%) today · ±$7.87 (±2.6%) this week Put/Call skew: +1.1 vol pts · roughly balanced MM skew · 0DTE +1.1 / next +1.8 vol pts · 0DTE complacency vs the next expiry ATM IV: 13.6% Gamma Flip = where dealer hedging flips from dampening to amplifying moves. Call/Put Walls = the largest call/put gamma strikes (pin / resistance above, support below). Expected move = the ±1σ range priced into at-the-money options. Public options data. FLOW DYNAMICS Charm — in a negative-gamma regime, decay doesn't pin; moves can extend into the close. Vanna — with dealers short gamma, a drop in vol would ease the amplification and let the tape settle. Second-order dealer flow context.