NoVo Analyst · Pre-Market Primer

BOTTOM LINE: Pre-market action is driving a coordinated gap-up across SPY, QQQ, and IWM, setting up a trend-continuation open that faces overhead supply tests into the release of the July FOMC meeting minutes. THE SETUP Index futures experienced a powerful overnight breakout during pre-market trading, clearing yesterday's highs and building acceptance well above session VWAP. Crucially, the move shows strong alignment across all three major index benchmarks: SPY ($770.85), QQQ ($720.94), and IWM ($302.68) are all expanding higher in lockstep, signaling broad institutional participation rather than a narrow tech-only drive. This upside momentum unfolds against persistent macro headwinds, as Brent crude oil holding near $91 a barrel and elevated long-end Treasury yields continue to tax growth valuations. The primary catalyst for the session arrives at 2:00 PM EST with the release of the July FOMC meeting minutes, where traders will scrutinize the three-way rate-hike dissent for clues on the September policy outlook. Expect early momentum to test overhead structural resistance before trading conditions potentially compress ahead of the Fed event. DEALER POSITIONING Across the board, dealer market-making posture has flipped into a structural state that directly dictates how liquidity behaves today. For SPY, dealer positioning sits in negative gamma (-$12M net GEX), meaning options market makers are forced to sell into market dips and buy into rallies, mechanically amplifying intraday direction rather than dampening it. QQQ and IWM share this precise short-gamma posture, creating a unified market structure where directional pushes across broad equities, tech, and small-caps have room to extend rapidly once order flow accelerates. The broader options book carries a net-short delta tilt paired with daily theta decay and downside put skew, putting a continuous holding penalty on stagnant long positions while keeping downside protective demand actively bid. LEVELS TO WATCH For SPY, holding above the pre-market low of 766.99 and prior-day high of 769.50 keeps the immediate bullish thesis intact toward pre-market high resistance at 771.82, with a breakout opening a path to the 775.00 call wall. A breakdown below the 770.80 gamma-flip level invalidates the intraday expansion thesis and shifts focus lower toward gravity at 769.13 and the 760.00 put wall. For QQQ and IWM, confirm whether price can maintain acceptance above their respective gamma-flip thresholds; holding above these levels keeps dealer hedging supportive of the breakout, while falling below re-engages amplifying short-gamma flows to the downside. DEALER POSITIONING MAP · SPY / QQQ / IWM Vol environment: VIX 15.2 — 10th percentile of the past year (very low vol). SPY $770.75 Net GEX: -$12M · negative — dealers amplify moves (moves extend) Gamma Flip: $770.80 Gravity (magnet): $769.13 Call Wall: $775.00 Put Wall: $760.00 Expected move: ±$9.67 (±1.3%) today · ±$21.63 (±2.8%) this week Put/Call skew: +3.3 vol pts · puts bid — downside hedging demand MM skew · 0DTE +3.3 / next +2.7 vol pts · 0DTE fear building vs the next expiry ATM IV: 19.9% QQQ $721.09 Net GEX: -$476M · negative — dealers amplify moves (moves extend) Gamma Flip: $723.40 Gravity (magnet): $716.69 Call Wall: $725.00 Put Wall: $717.00 Expected move: ±$7.35 (±1.0%) today · ±$22.91 (±3.2%) this week Put/Call skew: +4.3 vol pts · puts bid — downside hedging demand MM skew · 0DTE +4.3 / next +4.7 vol pts · 0DTE complacency vs the next expiry ATM IV: 16.2% IWM $302.68 Net GEX: -$110M · negative — dealers amplify moves (moves extend) Gamma Flip: $305.18 Gravity (magnet): $299.88 Call Wall: $305.00 Put Wall: $300.00 Expected move: ±$2.92 (±1.0%) today · ±$8.23 (±2.7%) this week Put/Call skew: +2.8 vol pts · puts bid — downside hedging demand MM skew · 0DTE +2.8 / next +2.7 vol pts · front term structure flat ATM IV: 15.3% Gamma Flip = where dealer hedging flips from dampening to amplifying moves. Call/Put Walls = the largest call/put gamma strikes (pin / resistance above, support below). Expected move = the ±1σ range priced into at-the-money options. Public options data. FLOW DYNAMICS Charm — as today's options decay, dealer delta drifts toward the walls: a mild pull into the close (the pin). Vanna — vol is low and dealers are long gamma; a VIX spike would flip them toward selling into weakness (amplifying) — the risk that changes the map. Second-order dealer flow context.