NoVo Analyst · Pre-Market Primer

BOTTOM LINE: Buyers are holding pre-market gains following solid mega-cap earnings beats, but negative dealer gamma across all three major index funds leaves the open vulnerable to wide, volatile price swings. THE SETUP Equities enter the Thursday session with a positive bias after overnight futures swept liquidity higher to set pre-market high at 767.78, well above yesterday's close. Catalyst support comes from tech after Broadcom's post-close Q3 earnings beat, offsetting persistent macro friction from Brent crude holding above $95 per barrel and 10-year Treasury yields hovering near 4.8%. Yesterday's ADP report showed U.S. private hiring slowing to 38,000 jobs in August, keeping economic sensitivity front-and-center. Expect a widening execution band into the opening bell: while buyers maintain control at a premium, the lack of dealer absorption means early moves will move fast rather than grind smoothly. DEALER POSITIONING Market structure reflects complete structural alignment across the index complex, with SPY, QQQ, and IWM all pinned in a net negative GEX posture. In this regime, market makers do not cushion pullbacks—they amplify momentum by mechanically selling weakness into market dips and buying strength into rallies. Tech-heavy QQQ carries the largest absolute net short-gamma overhang, leaving the Nasdaq-100 most vulnerable to sharp, sudden expansions if bond yields push higher. Across the broader public options chain, overall positioning retains a defensive net-short delta tilt paired with elevated put-skew pricing across both front and back expiries, confirming institutional demand for downside tail protection. LEVELS TO WATCH For SPY ($767.74), buyers retain immediate control while price holds above pre-market low support at 764.28 and yesterday's high at 766.43. A push higher targets overhead resistance at yesterday's high baseline, with a sustained breach exposing upside drift toward the call wall at 772.00. Reclaiming 768.96 is the critical structural threshold needed to cross the gamma flip and neutralize dealer amplification. Losing support at 764.28 invalidates the immediate bullish opening thesis, exposing a breakdown toward lower support at yesterday's low at 761.73. DEALER POSITIONING MAP · SPY / QQQ / IWM Vol environment: VIX 15.0 — 9th percentile of the past year (very low vol). SPY $767.77 Net GEX: -$606M · negative — dealers amplify moves (moves extend) Gamma Flip: $768.96 Gravity (magnet): $766.63 Call Wall: $772.00 Put Wall: $765.00 Historically (this setup): resolved up 70% of the next hour · median +0.042% · n=131 across 7 sessions Same structure, next SESSION: resolved up 57% · median +0.097% · n=223 sessions (reconstructed, 2008 on) Expected move: ±$10.81 (±1.4%) today · ±$24.17 (±3.1%) this week Put/Call skew: +2.5 vol pts · puts bid — downside hedging demand MM skew · 0DTE +2.5 / next +0.7 vol pts · 0DTE fear building vs the next expiry IV rank: 100 (26d) · ATM IV 22.3% Off-exchange short volume: 49.1% · 20th pct of 120d · lighter than usual QQQ $710.56 Net GEX: -$326M · negative — dealers amplify moves (moves extend) Gamma Flip: $711.52 Gravity (magnet): $707.88 Call Wall: $715.00 Put Wall: $700.00 Same structure, next SESSION: resolved up 57% · median +0.098% · n=436 sessions (reconstructed, 2008 on) Expected move: ±$7.55 (±1.1%) today · ±$21.09 (±3.0%) this week Put/Call skew: +2.1 vol pts · puts bid — downside hedging demand MM skew · 0DTE +2.1 / next +2.5 vol pts · 0DTE complacency vs the next expiry IV rank: 37 (26d) · ATM IV 16.9% Off-exchange short volume: 54.2% · 16th pct of 120d · lighter than usual IWM $295.72 Net GEX: -$589M · negative — dealers amplify moves (moves extend) Gamma Flip: $297.77 Gravity (magnet): $293.64 Call Wall: $300.00 Put Wall: $295.00 Historically (this setup): resolved down 59% of the next hour · median -0.033% · n=955 across 11 sessions Same structure, next SESSION: resolved up 55% · median +0.191% · n=75 sessions (reconstructed, 2008 on) Expected move: ±$2.78 (±0.9%) today · ±$8.10 (±2.7%) this week Put/Call skew: +2.5 vol pts · puts bid — downside hedging demand MM skew · 0DTE +2.5 / next +2.9 vol pts · 0DTE complacency vs the next expiry IV rank: 48 (26d) · ATM IV 14.9% Off-exchange short volume: 49.8% · 9th pct of 120d · lighter than usual Gamma Flip = where dealer hedging flips from dampening to amplifying moves. Call/Put Walls = the largest call/put gamma strikes (pin / resistance above, support below). Expected move = the ±1σ range priced into at-the-money options. Public options data. FLOW DYNAMICS Charm — in a negative-gamma regime, decay doesn't pin; moves can extend into the close. Vanna — with dealers short gamma, a drop in vol would ease the amplification and let the tape settle. Second-order dealer flow context.