The accrual gap, made concrete
Every transaction on Arbitrum pays its fees in ETH. The sequencer’s revenue accrues to the DAO treasury, but holding ARB entitles you to a vote over that treasury — not a claim on the flow. This is the layer-2 value-accrual question in its sharpest form: the network can compound usage indefinitely while the token’s only fundamental is the option that governance someday routes something to it.
A float with a venture history
ARB arrived by airdrop with large investor and team allocations vesting behind it — the standard modern-launch shape covered in unlocks and supply cliffs. Supply that grows on a calendar, set against demand that has no mechanical source, is a lean that does not need bad news to operate.
Governance premium is an event premium
What actually moves ARB against its peers: treasury votes, incentive programs, and anything that smells like fee-sharing. Demand arrives around proposals and decays after — the flow signature of a market pricing an event probability, not a cash flow.
Reading it
Trade it as a pair-legged asset: against OP, which answered the same question differently, and against the unlock calendar. Funding and open interest tell you how leveraged the current governance hope is.