Everyone watches CPI, but its lesser-known sibling PPI often moves the tape just as hard — and sometimes tells you where CPI is headed before it gets there.
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The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures inflation at the wholesale level — the average change in prices that domestic producers receive for their goods and services. It's a scheduled monthly release and a genuine market-mover, complementing the more famous CPI (CPI and the market).
Producers vs consumers
While CPI measures what consumers pay, PPI measures what producers get paid earlier in the supply chain. Because costs tend to flow downstream, a hot PPI can foreshadow a hot CPI to come — traders watch it partly as a preview of future consumer inflation (the PCE gauge).
Why the market reacts
Like any inflation print, PPI feeds the market's read on the Fed: hotter-than-expected inflation raises the odds of tighter policy (higher-for-longer rates), which pressures stocks; cooler prints do the opposite (the FOMC and the market). The surprise versus expectations is what moves price, not the raw number (the economic calendar).
CPI gets the headlines; PPI often gets there first. Both are the same question in disguise: what does this do to the Fed?
Trading around it
PPI drops pre-market on its scheduled day and can spike volatility at the release and the open. Know when it's coming, expect wider swings, and respect that scheduled prints can override the technicals for a few minutes (a pre-market routine). Many disciplined traders simply reduce size or stand aside across a major print rather than gamble on the reaction (sitting out).
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