The price is a probability
A dollar token at 97 cents is the market quoting odds on redemption at par — nothing more mysterious. The first classification question: is the doubt about the RESERVES (assets impaired — the USDC bank-weekend shape) or about the MECHANISM (an algorithmic or synthetic design whose loop can fail — the shape that has killed entire systems)? Reserve doubts mean the discount tracks news about specific assets; mechanism doubts can spiral, because the fear itself is the failure mode.
Where the truth trades
The redemption path is the anchor: whoever can actually redeem at par arbitrages the discount, so the SPEED of the snap-back measures how open that path is. Venue spreads add detail — a depeg on one exchange but not the issuer’s window is a liquidity event; everywhere at once is a solvency question. Curve-style stable pools tell the same story in pool-balance form: one side of the pool filling with the doubted asset is the market voting with inventory.
The reflexive tier
Anything algorithmic or carry-backed — the basis-trade dollar family — adds reflexivity: redemptions force unwinds that move the very markets backing the peg. There, size and speed of outflow are the read, not just price.
Reading it
Classify reserve-vs-mechanism first, watch the redemption arb’s speed, and treat pool imbalances as the honest order book of doubt. Depegs reward the reader who knew the design before the day it was tested.