The foundation’s ledger
Stellar launched with most XLM held by its development foundation for distribution, and in 2019 the foundation burned roughly half of everything outstanding in one stroke — the largest single supply event in the map’s history. What remains still leaves a large issuer-held reserve dispensed on the foundation’s judgment. A float whose growth is a policy decision reads differently from one set by code: the schedule is published, but it is a schedule someone can change.
Overhang arithmetic
Issuer-held supply is the slow cousin of unlock cliffs: no single date to trade, just a persistent expectation that more float arrives. Markets price persistent expectations flat — the overhang does not crash anything, it leans on everything.
Payments demand is real and small
Stellar’s anchor-and-remittance usage is genuine, but transactional throughput generates little holding demand: a rail is used, not held, the same value-accrual gap covered in the layer-1 family. Demand spikes here have historically been narrative events — partnership headlines — with the burst-and-decay flow signature.
Reading it
No options book, so read funding and open interest against the overhang: a leveraged long crowd in a coin whose float grows by policy is leaning into supply that does not need a seller to appear.