Front edge of a long schedule
SUI launched the way modern venture-backed L1s do: a modest circulating float against a much larger total, with investor and team allocations vesting over years. That makes the float a moving target by design — the exact shape studied in token unlocks and supply cliffs, running here at map-relevant scale.
Published supply still prices
Efficient-market instinct says a published schedule should be priced in. In practice unlock supply is absorbed, not pre-paid: recipients’ cost basis sits far below market, their selling is rational at almost any price, and each tranche has to find real bids. The persistent lean this puts on venture-float coins is visible across the whole class — the calendar tells you when the leaning gets heavier.
The tech is real; the float doesn’t care
SUI’s object-model architecture and throughput are genuine engineering, and none of it changes the supply arithmetic. A better chain with an expanding float still needs demand to grow faster than the float does — the layer-1 bet with a handicap clause attached.
Reading it
Keep the unlock calendar beside the positioning read. Leveraged longs built up just ahead of a large tranche — visible in funding and open interest — are a crowd paying carry to stand where supply is scheduled to land.