SPY Holds 764.17 Gamma Flip as Hot CPI Pushes Rate Hike Odds

SPY is trading at 764.29, sitting just twelve cents above its gamma flip at 764.17. That tiny margin is the line between two entirely different market regimes. Above 764.17, dealers are positioned in long gamma, acting as a natural shock absorber by buying dips and selling rallies into the 765 call wall. If spot drops below 764.17, dealers flip to short gamma and begin selling into weakness, accelerating downward momentum toward the 760 put wall. I logged SPY's expected move for today at ±0.46%, and my live record shows spot holding inside that band in 33 of 34 recent sessions. Benzinga reported that August CPI inflation came in hot at 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, which MT Newswires noted drove market expectations for a Fed rate hike up to 88%. Despite the macro headline, equity index positioning remains fractured across desks. QQQ sits in long gamma at 714.88, comfortably above its 714.07 flip level with a 720 call wall overhead and an expected move of ±0.62%. IWM tells a harsher story, trading down at 288.89 in short gamma regime below its 290.04 flip, right on top of its 288 put wall with a ±0.67% expected move. My structural read on SPY turns on this 764.17 boundary. While macro headlines dominate the wire, dealer hedging requirements dictate the intraday tape. As long as SPY remains above 764.17, volatility stays suppressed and price action remains constrained between 764.17 and 765. A decisive cross below 764.17 strips away dealer support and opens the door to a rapid test of the 760 put wall. I watch the level, not the narrative.