Iran Says Strait of Hormuz Will Stay Shut

Reuters reported on the wire that Iran stated the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until specific conditions are met. The standoff keeps the vital maritime corridor shuttered as regional conflict disrupts commercial flows, coming alongside a report from Bloomberg that major OPEC+ nations have reached an agreement in principle to keep their oil production quotas unchanged next month. The energy disruption lands as broader macroeconomic data is already pulling capital across desks. Separate reporting from Google Finance and The David Lin Report logged U.S. nonfarm payroll additions at just 29,000 for September, missing the consensus forecast of 84,000 as unemployment rose to 4.2%. That miss drove the CME FedWatch tool to price a 77% probability that the Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged at its upcoming October meeting. Bond markets have amplified the cross-asset pressure. The Associated Press and PBS News reported that U.K. 10-year gilt yields spiked to 5.53% before retreating to 5.37%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield touched marks not seen since 2002. Those yield moves rippled into international equity markets, dragging the FTSE 100 down 1.7% and Paris's CAC 40 down 1.6%. On our own tape, the equity indexes reflect the pull between sovereign yield volatility and the softer labor print. SPY sits at 769.82, positioned in long gamma above its 768.21 flip. That leaves dealers operating as a shock absorber between the 760 put wall and the 775 call wall, with an expected move of plus or minus 0.46% and skew at 1.2. Tech positioning shows a similar buffer on QQQ at 749.63, holding above its 748.13 flip with a 755 call wall, a 736 put wall, and an expected move of plus or minus 0.67%. In the small-cap book, IWM trades at 281.69 above its 280.17 flip, bounded by a 277 put wall and a 284 call wall. On the crypto side, Bitcoin trades at 85,142 on our tape, up 0.45% on the session. The derivative book shows BTC deep in positive territory with net GEX at 15,052,732, well above its 59,482.82 flip level and anchored against a max pain mark of 85,000.